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Tuesday, July 10, 2012
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Soft coup or counter coup? Egypt?s ?impending confrontation? between military and Muslim Brotherhood
?We are not trying to force the country into an inferno of political battles,? said Mourad Ali, a Brotherhood spokesman, but recent events raise the risk of violent conflict, say analysts.
?We will probably see some of the military banning the MPs from entering the parliament, and Tahrir will fill again ? and then it?s time to see who blinks first,? says Omar Ashour, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center.
The court decision is ?ratcheting up a confrontation? between newly-elected president Mohammed Morsi (right), who yesterday decreed that parliament should reconvene, and the military, which today ? in an apparent swipe at the president ? said that it was ?confident all state institutions? will respect the law and constitution.
?In a clear sign of an impending confrontation,? the FT?s Heba Saleh reports, the military ?fired a shot across the bows? of Morsi, ?saying it had dissolved parliament only to respect the court?s ruling.?
?It?s surprising how soon this has happened, but a conflict between the military and Muslim Brotherhood has been expected for a while,? said Eric Trager, a fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who is in Cairo. ?Political confrontation will be a feature for the foreseeable future.?
Morsi?s decree represents an attempt to establish his authority and legitimacy in a direct challenge to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, says Michele Dunne, director of the Atlantic Council?s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.
?It is now clear that Morsi has no intention of accepting the admittedly humiliating conditions the SCAF attached to his presidency,? she says.
?If what Morsi has done is to counter a soft coup by the SCAF that took place just before his inauguration, the question now is whether the military will mount a counter coup of some kind against Morsi and if so, how,? she notes. ?Another important question is whether the parliament will succeed in reconvening a quorum and, if so, whether it has an agenda of legal steps it plans to take in an attempt to outflank the SCAF and constitutional court. ?
Morsi is flexing the muscles of the presidency, said Khalil al-Anani, an expert on Islamist politics at the UK?s Durham University.
?Regardless of the underlying reasons behind Morsi?s decree, it?s a bold and significant step from Morsi to show his powerful presidency. Until we know the reaction of SCAF, this decree reflects Morsi?s sense of self-assertiveness and confidence,? he said. ?The question is to what extent Morsi can defy the military and challenge their power.?
The military is struggling to establish the constitutional red lines required to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood from monopolizing political power, says Michael Wahid Hanna, a fellow at the Century Foundation.
?Whether its heavy-handed marshaling of Egypt?s transition exemplifies a stroke of evil genius or bungling impulsiveness,? according to one assessment of the military?s outlook.
?In recent days, it has become clear that we have underestimated SCAF?s ideological viewpoints,? said Hanna. The military is ?not going to turn over the government to the [Muslim Brotherhood]. They are just not going to do it? The big question will be, where are those red lines that Morsi can?t cross. The Ministries of Defense, Interior, and Justice are off limits.?
?It?s extremely uncertain where this will lead,? said veteran political analyst Hani Shukrallah, editor of the state-run Al Ahram newspaper. ?On the face of it, it?s a very strong insult to the military and the Supreme Constitutional Court.?
?What we?re talking about here is not really the legalities of the situation, but power relations. How far is each side willing to push the other?? he said.
But the Islamists? power play has been criticized by secular democrats, human rights groups and independent analysts.
Morsi?s recall of the assembly was a ?violation of judicial power,? said the Egyptian Social Democratic Party, while liberal MP Amr Hamzawy criticized the decree as a violation of ?the primacy of law.?
?The decree could create a political crisis,? Gamal Eid, a prominent human rights lawyer, told the New York Times. ?He has been waiting to make a decision to prove he is president of a republic.?
The standoff has ominous implications for the democratic transition, says a leading expert on Egyptian constitutional law.
?I think this is a possible train wreck,? said Nathan Brown. ?The judiciary will probably circle the wagons and refuse to enforce any parliamentary law. The SCAF will claim legislative authority but its laws will be under a cloud. How will you even write a new election law in such a context? Or pass a law on the referendum for the constitution??
The decree ?certainly amounts to a confrontation with the judiciary,? said Brown, a political science professor at George Washington University. ?It probably amounts to a very bold confrontation with the SCAF as well, though we don?t know what understanding may have been reached there.?
According to a European diplomatic source, recalling parliament gave Morsi leverage over the military, but could also placate Islamists who dominate the assembly so that Morsi would have a freer hand to pick a broader cabinet with non-Islamist members.
?The test will come when we see how the soldiers guarding the parliament building behave when MPs try to convene,? the source said.
The timing of the president?s decree, days before a visit to Cairo by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, is significant, said Fahmy Howeidi, a columnist with the independent daily ElShorouk.
?I think this decision could have been delayed, but why did he decide to declare or to decide about the parliament before his departure to Saudi Arabia? Is he sending a message saying he is the real ruler, not the military? You know that Washington criticized the military for their latest statement [dissolving parliament], so was he encouraged by this criticism, in order to embarrass the military??
Egypt can rely on U.S. support for its democratic transition, says U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns, hinting that financial assistance will be contingent on respect for human rights and democratic institutions.
?Egyptians know far better than we do that their aspirations are not yet fully realized, but they can count on America?s partnership on the complicated road ahead,? Burns said, stressing U.S. support for a democratically elected parliament, a constitution that protects ?universal rights? and an inclusive government that ?embraces all of Egypt?s faiths and respects the rights of women and secular members of society.?
Burns met Morsi at the presidential palace on Sunday, ?signaling the new ties Washington is forging with resurgent Islamists in the region,? reports suggest:
Burns pledged that the United States, which grants the Egyptian armed forces $1.3 billion a year in military aid, would support Egypt?s economy, which has been hemorrhaging cash and is heading for a balance of payments and budget crisis.
Once a darling of emerging market fund managers, Egypt has watched foreign investors flee and its vital tourist trade has taken a big knock from the turmoil of the last year and a half.
Foreign reserves have plunged to about $15.5 billion, less than half their level before anti-Mubarak protests erupted, and the government has been forced to pay double-digit interest rates, seen as unsustainable, to fund its spending.
?Already domestic financing has reached a critical stage where you can?t rely totally on the market anymore,? said one Western diplomat. The government was running up payment arrears with energy suppliers and raising funds from the central bank, the diplomat noted ? tactics sustainable only for a short time.
Morsi?s decree puts the Obama administration in ?a ticklish position,? says Dunne, a board member of the National Endowment for Democracy.
?Difficult days ahead for Egyptians and difficult decisions for Washington, which had been eager, along with much of the world, to believe that Morsi?s election was finally putting the Egyptian transition on a firmer footing,? she notes.
?Given Morsi?s political persuasion and aversion to international monetary institutions, I think he will try and get basically Islamic-backed economic backing, as opposed to other monetary institutions, that they might consider dealings with them to be anti-Islamic or usury,? he said:
Unemployment is high in Egypt and chairman of the Jeddah-based Gulf Research Center Abdulaziz Sager says encouraging Saudi Arabia?s private sector to invest in Egypt is likely to top Morsi?s agenda.
?I am sure he wants to attract them again to continue their investments in Egypt and to assure them of the stability and the political stability in Egypt,? said Sager. ?At [the] same time, also if he can increase the sort of export of manpower from Egypt to Saudi Arabia that will help, because the remittances from Egyptian laborers to Egypt in Saudi is quite significant also.?
Sager says Saudi Arabia was one of the first countries to show serious economic support for Egypt, committing more than $4.5 billion to the country. Saudi Arabia is also a major shareholder in the Islamic Development Bank, which signed a $1 billion cooperation agreement last week with Egypt to support its food and energy sectors.
Kassem says Morsi, a long-time member of the Muslim Brotherhood, may also see in Saudi Arabia a potential lender with similar Islamic values.
?They [the Saudis] will be very interested in maintaining good relations with Egypt as they did with Mubarak. It is in everyone?s interest,? said Kassem, a leading member of the World Movement for Democracy.
The confrontation between the military and the Brotherhood demonstrates that Egypt?s illiberal actors are driving the political agenda, activists and analysts note, while democratic forces remain largely marginal.
The transition thus far has amounted to ?musical chairs, but not real shifts or change,? according to Nancy Okail, Egypt director of Freedom House.
The underlying dynamics of Egyptian politics have changed little, says Georgetown Professor Samer Shehata, who notes that the ?tremendous weight of the Egyptian state? poses a threat to widespread reform.
?It?s going to be difficult and long going to make significant progress? considering the weight of the 6 million person Egyptian state [bureaucracy].?
?Morsi?s power play will determine whether the generals? constitutional declaration will stand,? analysts suggest:
If it stands, the military will have not just the powers of the legislature but also the authority to steer the drafting of the new constitution. In the bigger picture, this may be a test case that determines the role of the military in post-Mubarak Egypt ? whether the country will follow the ?Turkish model? of the 1980s and 1990s in which the army could block civilian governments from acting against its wishes ? or whether the army will be subordinate to an elected president and legislature, Islamist or otherwise.
WHAT HAPPENS NOW?
Morsi has the legitimacy from being the country?s first-ever freely elected president, and Brotherhood supporters in the past have threatened a ?second revolution? if the army tries to hold on to power. The military, on the other hand, has the top court on its side ? and, of course, the ability to put tanks on the streets. Over the past 17 months, neither side has shown a willingness to push a crisis over the breaking point, however, and there are a number of ways that this conflict could be defused. Morsi also announced that there would be new elections after a constitution is adopted, and parliament could meet once or twice and then go into recess. But Egypt?s post-Mubarak transition has been wildly unpredictable so far, and few analysts would venture with any confidence what will happen next.
The Project on Middle East Democracy, a grantee of the National Endowment for Democracy, adds:
Morsi Issues Decree to Reinstate Parliament
Gizawy Indictment Accepted Ahead of Morsi Visit to Saudi
Alaa and Gamal Mubarak Corruption Case Adjourned
Lawyers Refuse to Represent Police in Port Said Case
Morsi Issues Decree to Reinstate Parliament
On Sunday, President Morsi issued a decree that reinstated parliament and called for fresh elections within 60 days of the ratification of the country?s new constitution. Morsi?s decision was met with praise and outrage, with opponents saying the president?s decision violates the rule of law and is a step towards autocracy. Supporters say that Morsi has every right to call for the parliament to reconvene and that legislative authority is now back in the hands of elected officials rather than the military. Protesters on both sides gathered in response to the decision, with demonstrations in Tahrir Square in support of the president and at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Nasr City against the decree. Mohamed ElBaradei responded to the decision by Egypt?s president saying ?The executive decision to overrule the HCC decision is turning Egypt from a government of law into a government of men.? Writer Alaa El Aswani noted, ?legislative prerogatives should be in the hands of the people ? not the generals.? The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) held an emergency meeting yesterday to discuss the decision by Egypt?s new president. Anonymous sources from SCAF told Egyptian media that the decision was a complete surprise to everyone, including the military council. Some analysts have speculated that Morsi had the approval of SCAF to reinstate parliament as the move satisfies the Brotherhood?s desire to see the parliament it dominates back in force as well as SCAF?s preference for new elections in the near-term.? After it held an emergency meeting today in response to Morsi?s decree, the SCC said that its decisions were final and binding on all state authorities. The SCC will hear appeals to the decision dissolving parliament Tuesday.
back to top
Sources
?Court to meet over Morsy decision to reinstate Parliament,? Egypt Independent (English) 7/9/2012.
?Morsy decision to reinstate Parliament stirs demonstrations,? Egypt Independent (English) 7/9/2012.
?Military source: SCAF surprised by Morsy?s decision,? Egypt Independent (English) 7/8/2012.
?President?s reinstatement of Egypt parliament met with praise, indignation,? Ahram Online (English) 7/8/2012.
?Egypt?s SCAF should stop MPs from entering parliament building: Legal expert,? Ahram Online (English) 7/8/2012.
?Parliament speaker: Egypt?s restored People?s Assembly to meet ?within hours?,? Ahram Online (English) 7/8/2012.
?SCAF holds emergency meeting to discuss President?s decree to reinstate lower house,? Ahram Online (English) 7/8/2012.
?Egypt president recalls parliament, generals meet,? Aswat Masriya (English) 7/8/2012.
?Morsi?s decision does not conflict with law, Judge Khoderi says,? Aswat Masriya (English) 7/8/2012.
?Reinstating parliament renders rule of law useless ? ElBaradei,? Aswat Masriya (English) 7/8/2012.
?Reinstating parliament deprives Morsi of legitimacy ? Leftist Party official,? Aswat Masriya (English) 7/8/2012.
?Breaking: Morsi orders parliament to reconvene,? Aswat Masriya (English) 7/8/2012.
?Administrative court of appeals to consider dissolution of parliament today,? Al Dostour (Arabic) 7/9/2012.
?Egypt court says rulings binding after president decree,? Aswat Masriya (English) 7/9/2012.
?Revived parliament holds session tomorrow,? Aswat Masriya (English) 7/9/2012.
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Monday, July 9, 2012
It?s Official: Pinterest, SF Mayor Ed Lee Confirm Move To San Francisco, Lee Opens Pinterest Acct In Celebration
Pinterest is pinning its name on a new office door: the company today officially announced that it is moving its offices from Palo Alto to San Francisco, confirming our reports from June that were further confirmed this weekend by Pinterest's international growth executive Sarah Tavel. Pinterest tells us its office will be at 572 7th Street for now. The news was delivered today by San Francisco's mayor Ed Lee, who has rung in the news by launching his own Pinterest account.Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Techcrunch/~3/MS5bU-trT_I/
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SEC finalizes derivative definition rules
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Source: http://news.yahoo.com/sec-finalizes-derivative-definition-rules-145138218--sector.html
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Report: UN envoy Annan says efforts for peaceful political solution in Syria have failed
BEIRUT - Special U.N. envoy Kofi Annan acknowledged in an interview published Saturday that the international community's efforts to find a political solution to the escalating violence in Syria have failed.
Annan also said that more attention needed to be paid to the role of longtime Syrian ally Iran, and that countries supporting military actors in the conflict were making the situation worse.
"The evidence shows that we have not succeeded," he told the French daily Le Monde.
Annan, the special envoy for the United Nations and the Arab League, is the architect of the most prominent international plan to end the crisis in Syria, which activists say has killed more than 14,000 people since March, 2011.
His six-point plan was to begin with a cease-fire in mid-April between government forces and rebels seeking to topple the regime of President Bashar Assad. But the truce never took hold, and now the almost 300 U.N. observers sent to monitor the cease-fire are confined to their hotels because of the escalating violence.
Activists reported more than 50 people killed on Saturday alone, after some 800 people last week.
Annan defended the unarmed observers, saying it was not their job to stop the violence, but to monitor the sides' adherence to the truce.
He offered few suggestions on how the plan could be salvaged, only saying that Iran "should be part of the solution" and that criticism too often focused on Russia, which has stood by the regime.
"Very few things are said about other countries that send arms and money and weigh on the situation on the ground," he said, without naming any specific countries.
It is unclear what role Annan envisions for Iran, a longtime Syrian longtime ally that has stood by the regime throughout the uprising. Tehran's close ties could make it an interlocutor with the regime, though the U.S. has often refused to let the Islamic Republic attend conferences about the Syria crisis.
Russia provides the Assad regime with most of its weapons. No countries are known to be arming the rebels, though some Gulf Arab states have spoken positively of doing so. The U.S. and other Western nations have sent non-lethal aid, like communications equipment.
The Syrian uprising began in March, 2011, when people first took to the streets to call for political reforms. Since then, the government has waged a brutal crackdown, and many in the opposition have taken up arms, sidelining peaceful activists and changing the conflict into an armed insurgency.
Scores of independent rebel groups now operate in the country, regularly attacking regime bases and convoys.
Activists in Syria on Saturday reported fierce government offensives to try to retake rebellious areas outside of the northern city of Aleppo and near the capital Damascus, as well as government shelling across the country.
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which relies on an activist network inside Syria, called the bombardment of a number of villages in Aleppo province "the most violent" since the army launched a recent campaign to retake control of the area.
The group said that rebels in the area had killed many regime soldiers in recent months. Three rebels and three civilians were killed in the province Saturday, it said. Five government soldiers also were killed when rebels blew up their vehicle.
The Observatory said at least 35 rebels and civilians were killed nationwide, plus 19 government soldiers.
The activist claims could not be independently verified. The Syrian government rarely comments on its military operations and blames the uprising on foreign-backed gangs seeking to weaken the country.
The violence has raised fears that the unrest will spill over into Lebanon, which has extensive sectarian and political ties to its eastern neighbour.
On Saturday, shells fired from inside Syria killed two Lebanese civilians and wounded 10 others, security officials said, in the latest incident of violence spilling across the border.
One woman was killed when a shell hit her home in the Wadi Khalid area of northeast Lebanon, also wounding five others. Another shell hit the nearby village of al-Hisheh, killing an 8-year-old boy and wounding his father and four other children.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity in line with government regulations.
Despite mounting international condemnation, Assad's regime has largely held together. On Saturday, however, France announced the defection of Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlass, an Assad confidant and son of a former defence minister who helped ease Assad into power.
Tlass is the highest ranking official to abandon the regime so far, and Western powers and anti-regime activists hoped his departure would encourage others to leave, too.
News of the defection largely overshadowed an international conference in Paris on Saturday attended by the U.S., its European and Arab partners and members of Syria's fractured opposition.
The so-called "Friends of Syria" said they would provide means for the opposition in Syria to better communicate among themselves and with the outside world and increase humanitarian aid.
They also called on the U.N. Security Council to adopt a resolution that would force the regime to comply with the two peace plans that have been largely ignored by both sides in the conflict.
Syrian allies Russia and China would likely veto any resolution seen as too critical of the Syrian government, as they have in the past.
About 100 demonstrators marched against Assad's regime in Paris on Saturday. Many were disappointed that the Paris conference had not led to more specific actions against the regime.
"Meeting just to talk is useless," said protester Hende Khattav, a Syrian who has lived in Paris for 37 years. "We have to do something. There has to be a useful action to make this massacre of the Syrian people stop."
___
Associated Press writer Angela Charlton contributed to this report from Paris.
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/report-un-envoy-annan-says-efforts-peaceful-political-212021680.html
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GL conveys the availability of VQuad? Probe - All VoIP News
GL Communications Inc. a leader in providing PC-based test, analysis and simulation products and consulting services to the worldwide telecommunications industry, conveyed today the availability of its VQuad™ Probe hardware.
He added, "The VQuad™ Probe supports two independent devices for connecting to endpoints of a single network or two completely separate networks. It is configured for control via Ethernet using Remote Desktop.
The VQuad™ Probe as well supports T1 E1 interfaces when used with GL's Portable USB T1 E1 Analyzer. Using the T1 E1 Analyzer, the VQuad™ Probe can generate and receive up to 8 simultaneous CAS, PRI ISDN or No Call Control calls on T1 or E1 trunks."
?A single solution for up to 8 interfaces ?Each port may be controlled independently for traffic and call control ?Automatic send/receive voice files over already established calls ?Time/Digit/Tone triggering of send/receive voice files. ?Remote Access for starting/stopping the tests along with retrieving results. ?Results available in real-time or post-processing ?Automatic execution of the VQT algorithms. ?Automatic Round Trip Delay and One Way Delay Measurements ?Echo Measurements testing, supports both line and acoustic echo ?Automated Data Testing including TCP, UDP, VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol), Route, HTTP, FTP, DNS and SMS statistics are available for Mobile devices as then as the Internet connection of the PC, LTE).
Founded in 1986, GL Communications Inc. is a leading supplier of test, monitoring, and analysis equipment for TDM, Wireless, IP and VoIP networks. Unlike conventional test equipment, GL's test platforms provide visualization, capture, storage, and convenient features like portability, remotability, and scripting.
GL's VoIP and IP products generate / analyze thousands of calls and traffic simultaneously with traffic types just as frames, packets, voice files, digits, video, tones, noise, and fax. Nearly all codecs are supported including G.711, G.729, AMR, EVRC-A, B, C, GSM, iSAC, and many more. Additional features include visual analysis, real-time listening, and recording. The product line as well includes Ethernet / IP Testing capability that simulates and checks frame transport and throughput parameters of Ethernet and IP networks, including delay, errors and other impairments.
GL's Voice Quality Testing product line complements all of GL's products. Using ITU-standard algorithms, GL's VQT provides a widely accepted solution for assessing voice quality in the telecom industry. Voice Quality Testing across multiple networks is available.
GL's Wireless Products perform protocol analysis and voice quality assessment on GSM, CDMA, UMTS, and LTE (Long Term Evolution, latest standard in the mobile network technology) networks. Connections can be made to any wireless phone with automated call control, GPS mapping and real-time signal measurements.
The broadest range of simulation
GL's Echo Canceller testing solutions provide the broadest range of simulation and analysis, including line and acoustic echo. GL's compliance testing per G.168. G.167 and P.340 across TDM, IP, VoIP and Wireless networks is widely accepted in the industry.
GL's wireless VQT solutions help assessing impairments to voice quality just as poor mobile phone quality, voice compression and decompression algorithms, delay, loss and gain in speech levels, noise, acoustic and landline echo, and other distortions are easily assessed and accurately measured.
Wide variety of communications facilities
GL's Handheld data testers can test a wide variety of communications facilities and equipment including T1, fractional T1, E1, fractional E1, T3 and E3 modems, multiplexers, CSU, DSUs, T1 CSUs, DTUs, NTUs and TIUs and more. The testers provide convenience, economy, and portability for nearly any interface, including RS232, RS-422, RS-530, X.21, T1, E1, T3, E3, and many others.
GL's Network Surveillance and Monitoring products include Probes for TDM, IP, VoIP, ATM, and Wireless networks. An open standards based approach provides a scalable, feature rich, real-time access to network characteristics. Centralized or distributed access, efficient transport and database loading allow compatibility with 3rd party and standards based monitoring systems.
Source: http://www.allvoipnews.com/gl-conveys-the-availability-of-vquad-probe.html
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